When Syria’s rebels captured Aleppo late last week, it sent tremors through the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Those tremors have now become an earthquake.
Many observers thought that capturing Hama, a city more than 130km (80 miles) south of Aleppo, would be a step too far for the jihadist-led rebels. They predicted that the Assad regime forces would be able to regroup and stop their fighters before they reached its gates.
But on Thursday, the rebels not only stormed the city – largely without a fight – but filmed themselves wandering around the governor’s marble-clad mansion.
After the loss of Aleppo on Thursday, the regime scrambled to set up a perimeter defence of Hama, which serves as the crossroad for a number of strategic highways across the country. Such is the importance of the city to Assad that it was not even fought over during the civil war of 2011 to 2016: the opposition forces realised they would only waste men against the heavily-fortified defences. As such, Syrian refugees who had fled Assad during those years erupted with joy on Thursday.
Rebels not only stormed the city of Hama but largely conquered it without a fight – ABDULAZIZ KETAZ/AFP via Getty Images
In days, the rebels had delivered a harsher blow to Syria’s president than many dared to dream.
With Hama’s capture, the road now lies open to Homs. It was here in 2011 that protesters first called for the downfall of Assad, sparking the brutal repression that escalated into all-out war. If they head south, the next phase of the rebel’s military operation is likely to be the most challenging. Homs serves as the link between the capital Damascus and Assad’s loyalist heartland on the Mediterranean coast.
On Thursday, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the jihadist group leading the rebellion, offered an olive branch to the Alawite community from which Assad hails, promising to protect the minority and calling on its members to turn against the regime.
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani mobbed in Aleppo
Credit: X / @moradabd
It was one sign of how the group has evolved from its jihadist fighting roots to a diplomatically astute player in Syria’s national politics. Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the group’s leader, who has a $10m US bounty on his head, has repeatedly stressed that no Kurds, Christians or other of Syria’s minorities will be hurt or oppressed by his fighters’ advance.
He is reportedly considering dropping the name ‘HTS’ to become a more inclusive, national force – and dresses in Volodymyr Zelensky-like fatigues rather than explicitly Islamist garb. In the past four years, he has also trained and equipped his soldiers to the level they now often outmatch Assad’s forces.
X/ @MintelWorld
HTS has officers, special forces, night-time units and a drone force. It has manufactured home-made rockets on a large scale. Assad’s soldiers, meanwhile, are low on morale and lack the support they relied on from Russia and Iran. This week, Assad ordered army pay increased by 50 per cent – desperately hoping to put some steel back in its fighters.
In Damascus, the mood is tense. Elite army units from the 4th Division patrol the city, while the president and key institutions are protected by the Republican Guard. Some southern neighbourhoods are filled with Iranian-backed militias. If the rebels advance and take Homs, Assad’s position will become untenable – and, over time, his family’s 54-year reign will surely come to an end.
Rebel fighters take pot shots at a Bashar al-Assad poster in Hama – BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Image
They might pursue other avenues first. The rebels could turn West, towards Russian military facilities like the Tartus naval port or Hmeimim airbase. They could also move east, securing the country’s vital oil and gas fields and so denying the regime key sources of revenue. Eventually, though, they will turn to Homs.
And whatever they now decide, Assad will struggle to root the rebels out of the positions they hold. In a week the regime has lost six air bases in Idlib, Hama and Aleppo. This severely limits the range of the Russian and Syrian air forces to strike targets in the rebel-held north. It has also lost an estimated quarter to a third of all its military hardware.
Fragmented before, Syria is now well and truly split. And the momentum is all against Assad.
Thomas van Linge is a conflict reporter and researcher based in Amsterdam, in The Netherlands
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