With the death of Pope Francis at the age of 88, the world’s attention now turns to who will replace him.
Predicting who will be chosen as the next leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics is notoriously fraught with difficulties. In theory, any baptised Catholic male could be made Pope.
In practice however, the next pontiff will likely be drawn from the cardinals who will gather in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican for the secret papal election known as the conclave.
After Pope Benedict XVI stepped down in 2013, very few Vatican observers predicted that Jorge Mario Bergoglio from Argentina would be elected as Pope Francis.
This time around, there are no stand-out candidates, making the guessing game even more challenging.
But there are names of potential “papabile” (likely candidates for the papacy) swirling around the corridors of the Vatican.
Their diverse origins reflect the vast global reach of the Catholic Church.
The contest is likely to come down to a battle between progressives who applaud the late pope’s comparatively liberal stance on divorcees, gays and the plight of refugees, and conservatives who loathed his agenda.
Peter Erdo
For the conservatives there is Peter Erdo, a Hungarian cardinal and Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest.
The Hungarian cardinal, Peter Erdo – REUTERS
Edward Pentin, a Vatican expert and the author of The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates, said: “Erdo is a leading contender for the conservative wing of the Church. People like him because he is a strong canonist – he’s proficient in Church law.
“Many Catholics feel that the Church needs to be brought back from a sense of ecclesiastical lawlessness that evolved under Francis. Erdo would be a safe pair of hands.”
Luis Antonio Tagle
Among the liberals within the Catholic Church, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is a name often mentioned.
Dubbed “the Asian Francis” for his good humour and progressive views, he comes from the Philippines and if elected would be the first Asian pope.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle – Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Imges
He has some of Pope Francis’ humility – at the seminary in the Philippines where he lived for about 20 years, his room had no air-conditioning or television. Even when made a bishop, he eschewed a car and went to work in a bus or “jeepney”.
“Five or six years ago, he was Pope Francis’s favourite to succeed him. He’s head of the important new super-dicastery for evangelisation. He’s quite a strong contender. And he’s still relatively young,” said Mr Pentin.
His age may count against him, however – cardinals are wary of appointing a relatively young man because his papacy could last decades, thwarting their own ambitions and squeezing their chances of one day being elected.
Pietro Parolin
Pietro Parolin, the current secretary of state for the Vatican – in effect, its prime minister – is also considered to be a leading candidate.
His profile rose during the Ukraine war as the Vatican presented itself as an honest broker that could eventually mediate with Moscow to bring the conflict to a close.
The Holy See’s secretary of state Cardinal Pietro Parolin – AFP
Thomas Reese, an American Catholic priest and the author of Inside the Vatican, said: “He’s a very competent diplomat.
“He’s been the brains behind Pope Francis’ international diplomacy. He doesn’t put a foot wrong.”
He is tarnished, however, by a property scandal in which the Vatican lost millions of euros through the bungled purchase of a former Harrods showroom in London.
“Questions will be raised about whether he was incompetent or delegated responsibility to subordinates. Either way, something went wrong and he was the boss. There’s an ongoing trial so it could overshadow his papacy,” said Father Reese.
Other candidates
Another candidate from the liberal wing of the Church is Cardinal Jose Tolentino Calaca de Mendonca, who comes from the Portuguese island of Madeira and was appointed by Pope Francis as head of a department for culture and education.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, the Archbishop of Bologna, is another Italian in the mix, a progressive who is regarded as having been close to Pope Francis.
Jose Tolentino Calaca de Mendonca – Corbis via Getty Images
Staying within Europe, Cardinal Mario Grech from Malta, the secretary-general of the synod of bishops, is thought to have a decent chance of landing the top job.
He is seen as having been close to Pope Francis but a conservative at heart, meaning he could fit the bill as a compromise candidate.
From outside Europe, one of the names most often mentioned is Cardinal Peter Turkson, from Ghana. He was a key adviser to Pope Francis on issues such as climate change and social justice.
If chosen by his fellow cardinals in the conclave, he would be the first black African pope in history.
Another African who is being mentioned is Cardinal Robert Sarah, from Guinea, who has criticised gender ideology and denounced Islamic radicalism.
Forecasting a winner is a risky business
Since Pope Francis was elected in 2013, he has appointed about two-thirds of the cardinals who are eligible to elect the next pope.
“Close to half the cardinals are now from the global south. They have issues that are different to issues in Europe and the US. They’re concerned about global warming, poverty, civil wars, corruption in government,” said Father Reese, a historian of the Church and a columnist for Religion News Service.
“All politics is local. Every cardinal wants to know how the next pope will be viewed in their country. Is he someone who will listen to me, who speaks my language? They could choose a cardinal from the global south.”
Vatican rules state that cardinals must reach a two-thirds majority when they gather to vote in the conclave, which is held inside the Sistine Chapel. For now, there is no leading candidate.
There are so many variables, and the process is so opaque, that forecasting a winner is a risky business.
“Last time around, when Benedict XVI resigned, I predicted that there was no way they would elect a Jesuit pope. They went ahead and elected a Jesuit pope. It proved how poor our understanding was,” said Father Reese.
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