The acceleration of climate change has fueled more frequent and more severe natural disasters, but that isn’t keeping people away from high-risk parts of the country.
A new report from Redfin shows that migration patterns in 2023 weren’t interrupted by the realities of climate change as moving trends appear to be driven by factors other than the risk of natural disasters.
U.S. counties with a high risk of wildfires absorbed a net inflow of 63,365 people in 2023, while counties with a high risk of flooding saw 16,144 more people move in than out.
“Ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of risky areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate change isn’t the top concern,” Redfin senior economist Elijah de la Campa said in the report. “For a lot of Americans, things like cost of living and proximity to family take precedence over catastrophe risk, which can feel less immediate and more abstract.”
Florida and Texas are key to the net inflow and outflow trends. People flocked to both states following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic — particularly those from states with more expensive housing and more strict public health restrictions.
Of the 10 high-risk counties for flooding with the most inflow, six are in Florida (Brevard, St. Johns, Volusia, Manatee, Sarasota and Lee) and two are in Texas (Fort Bend and Brazoria). Fort Bend has the most inflow of any county with a high risk of flooding.
Of the 10 high-risk counties for wildfires with the most inflow, five are in Texas (Parker, Hunt, Grayson, Wise and Midland) and three are in Colorado (Weld, Douglas and Larimer). The county with the most inflow despite high fire risk is Riverside County, California.
Of fire-prone counties with the most outflow, five were in California, with Ventura County’s net outflow of 6,754 residents leading the way. But Redfin posited that outflow in California is likely attributable to high housing costs, not climate change anxieties.
“The cost-benefit calculus seems to be shifting in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and an uptick in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national news,” de la Campa said.
