Indiana Pacers Vs Milwaukee Bucks Playoff Series Is About Differences

INDIANAPOLIS – It was never going to be anything different. After meeting five times during the regular season in 2023-24, then again for a six-game series in the ensuing postseason, the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks have become quite familiar with one another. This season, they battled four times in the regular season and are set for a playoff series that begins on Saturday – meaning the two franchises will battle roughly 20 times in a 1.5 year timeframe.

There have been intense moments, big games, and even a fracas. And now, there will be another series. While many of the names from last year’s first-round duel remain, things will look dramatically different in this year’s series – and those differences will define the best-of-seven set.

“They’re a tough matchup. They’re really difficult,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle mentioned of the Bucks this week. Milwaukee started the season 2-8, then won 64% of their games the rest of the way. Indiana, meanwhile, was 9-14 at one point but won 69% of their games across the remainder of the season. It’s possible, if not likely, that both teams are better than their cumulative record suggests entering the postseason.

Last year, the Pacers walked away from the first-round set 4-2 winners, their first series win in a decade. It was a big moment for the ascending team, and one that will no doubt make the group more prepared this season. “I think last year we were just satisfied with being in the playoffs. Everything from there was kind of playing with house money,” Pacers star guard Tyrese Haliburton said. “This year, I think we have real expectations to do something special as a group.”

That mentality shift, on top of the Pacers possession of home-court advantage this time around – something that All-Star forward Pascal Siakam said can’t allow the team to be complacent – are big deviations from last year’s setting. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the contrast between the 2024 series and 2025.

What are the big differences for the Pacers and Bucks from year to year?

The most obvious and impactful change is the health status of Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP missed the 2024 playoffs with a calf injury, but he’s ready to go this time around. And he is the biggest challenge that the Pacers will have to face in the series – he is widely considered the best individual player in the Eastern Conference postseason field.

This season, the Greek Freak averaged 30.0 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game across four outings vs Indiana. That’s more points per game than his average against 17 other teams, more rebounds than all but nine squads, and more dimes than he posted against all but eight teams. He was terrific against the blue and gold in 2024-25 and has been his entire career – he’s 17-7 against the Pacers since the start of the 2018-19 campaign.

“Obviously they have Giannis. They have Giannis back, so that’s a big plus. They have a different team,” Siakam said when asked what is different about the Bucks in this series compared to last year’s. “They have a tough cover with Giannis. All the guys around him are playing so well. He’s passing the ball well,” Siakam added, noting that Antetokounmpo can do everything and attacks with force.

Milwaukee was more than 10 points per 100 possessions better with Antetokounmpo on the floor than off this season. He’s going to be the biggest new challenge Indiana faces in the series. But he won’t be the only one – the Bucks roster has other drastic changes.

It’s possible that four of the five Milwaukee starters in Game 1 of the series are different from 2024. Damian Lillard is out (though reporting suggests he could return at some point during the series) while Khris Middleton and Patrick Beverley are no longer on the squad. Bobby Portis has come off the bench of late, and Antetokounmpo didn’t play last year. Only Brook Lopez projects to be a holdover from last season.

Instead, the Bucks have recently opened games with the likes of Ryan Rollins, Taurean Prince, and Kyle Kuzma alongside the former MVP and Lopez. Their reserve group contains Kevin Porter Jr and Gary Trent Jr, two new members for the team this season, alongside AJ Green and Portis.

It’s a much different rotation, and it contains way more three-point shooting – the Bucks led the NBA in shooting percentage from long range in 2024-25.

“Since the beginning of January, their defensive numbers have been among the best in the league. They’re bigger, they’re more physical,” Carlisle said of the contrast from year to year for Milwaukee. “They’ve added Kevin Porter, who is playing great for them. Trent is having a great year. They’ve got some difficult things to deal with.” The Pacers sideline leader added that the Bucks have two of the best players on the planet in Lillard and Antetokounmpo, and Milwaukee’s depth fits well around those two players.

“They have a different team that plays hard,” Siakam noted. “In the last I don’t know how many games they’ve been rolling… it’s going to be a lot of different challenges than we had last year.” The Bucks closed the season on an eight-game win streak.

Last year, Indiana won the regular season series 4-1 in advance of a playoff series win. This year, the Bucks went 3-1. Yet after both campaigns, the Pacers were consistent with their messaging that the regular season results aren’t too important. It’s in the past. The blue and gold were looking forward when they were controlling the matchup, and then still when they weren’t.

That is another step in their mental growth – which was earned by gaining experience last postseason. Many Pacers players were in the playoffs for the first time of their career last year. This time, that isn’t the case. Only Bennedict Mathurin will be debuting in the postseason during this series, though he is one of the key differences that comes from the Pacers roster.

Mathurin is a player that seems like a perfect fit for the playoffs. His competitiveness, one-on-one scoring ability, on-ball defense, and ability to draw fouls all seem like valuable skills in a postseason setting. The common thinking is that the game slows down on the playoff stage, and Mathurin plays better in that kind of outing.

The Pacers were proud that they did the opposite last year, though. They generally kept their tempo during the playoffs, and it led to a pair of series wins. Mathurin will be a useful weapon for Indiana, and he is a key difference in the series from one year to the next. Exactly how impactful he ends up being may be determined by the speed of play more than anything.

The Pacers are slightly worse compared to the rest of the league as an offensive team in 2025 than they were in 2024, but they have taken major steps forward defensively. The exact same reality is true for the Bucks. Both teams had clear focuses for improvement this year and hope they will pay off in the playoffs.

The many differences from one year to the next will define the series. If the Pacers can’t handle home court advantage or retain their mentality from last year, they might take a step back. If Antetokounmpo is too mighty, the blue and gold could fall. If their own shifts – a slight step back on offense yet growth on defense, plus the addition of Mathurin – prove to be insignificant changes, the Pacers could lose the series.

But if they come out ready and protect their home floor, keep up in the Antetokounmpo minutes, and show their teeth from in-season improvements, they could run away with the best-of-seven set. Mathurin has a chance to be an X-factor. The shifts from year to year will dictate the result.

“Last year, we were the Cinderella story. We were the hunters. Everybody didn’t really see us coming,” Pacers center Myles Turner said. “People know how we play. People know our style of play and what we have to offer now. Setting the tone will be crucial.”

As the Pacers ascend, they’ll hope the differences in the battle this time around can carry them past the Bucks. Armed with more experience and good health, much will be learned about the direction Indiana should be headed once the series is over.