At this time last year, the New York Giants were deciding Saquon Barkley wasn’t worth what he wanted to be paid, and the Philadelphia Eagles were quietly waiting to pounce.
Very few NFL free agency moves directly impact a Super Bowl championship like that one. But when free agency officially begins on March 12, there will be plenty of teams spending and trying to fill holes, hoping that those moves are even close as impactful as Barkley was to the Eagles.
Here are the top 10 storylines to track for free agency:
Will the Bengals pay Tee Higgins?
This is a chance for the Bengals to distance themselves from their reputation of being cheap. Retaining Tee Higgins while extending Ja’Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson should have been done long ago, but the Bengals dragged their feet and now it’ll cost them more than it should have. If Higgins hits free agency, he’s going to get a massive contract. Receivers of his talent level and age don’t hit the market that often. It will not be easy to pay Higgins and Chase, and perhaps Hendrickson too, but it can be done. What will the Bengals do?
Aaron Rodgers’ future in the air
The Jets won’t bring Rodgers back, and now there are plenty of questions for Rodgers at age 41. Does he want to play? If he does, there will be a job for him if he wants it. He played pretty well late last season, perhaps as he got healthy, posting a 97 rating over his final 10 games. There will be Week 1 starting quarterbacks worse than Rodgers. But does he want to settle for a less-than-ideal situation just to keep playing? There aren’t many spots that offer Rodgers a true chance to compete for a title or maybe even a playoff berth. He’s a big domino this offseason.
Sam Darnold looks to cash in
If Darnold could pull a “Men in Black” and erase NFL general managers’ memories of his final two games last season, he could name his price. He still will get paid despite his late struggles, because he’s 27 and coming off a very good season for the Vikings. Supply and demand is real. But there should be more trepidation and an honest evaluation about what went wrong in those final two games. Which team is going to take the chance?
The Patriots will be spending
The Patriots have about $120 million in cap space (Spotrac has it at $121 million while Over The Cap has it at $119.8 million). The exact number doesn’t really matter; the Patriots have almost $30 million more than any other team and can afford whoever they want. There’s no team in the NFL that should be more desperate for an infusion of talent. The Patriots should be players for every high-end offensive lineman and receiver out there.
Saints will not be spending … maybe
The difference between the Patriots’ cap space and the Saints’ cap space in the middle of February was $181 million. Wow. The Saints were more than $60 million over the cap according to Spotrac. Here’s the fork in the road: Do they continue to do just enough to get under the cap, pushing the bigger hits to the future so they can keep an aging and mediocre roster together, or do they tear it all down and swallow what would be a bad season or two? How the Saints figure out their cap is an interesting conundrum.
Steelers need another band-aid QB
Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are free agents, and they will be watched closely. The Steelers are on the quarterback hamster wheel, still searching for a high-end quarterback that can take them back to the next level. Is someone like Aaron Rodgers really that player? Do they have another answer? They got creative last offseason with Fields and Wilson at low prices, now let’s see what they come up with this year.
Bills look for a WR
The Bills rented Amari Cooper in his walk year, but that trade didn’t work out as well as hoped. The Bills need a difference-making receiver, and they’re not easy to get. Maybe they bring back Cooper, who has been good and probably would be a solid option with better health. Buffalo doesn’t have a ton of cap space. But the Bills should also have a lot of urgency to upgrade around MVP Josh Allen. Time to get creative.
Eagles try to run it back
The champs’ biggest strength is depth, and that will get tested every offseason. It’s not like GM Howie Roseman was upset that Josh Sweat and Milton Williams each had dominant Super Bowls on the Eagles’ defensive line, but he had to know that both free agents’ price went up with every sack. The Eagles can’t afford to keep everyone. All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun is another free agent who can cash in. Who will Philly prioritize?
Tom Brady searches for a Raiders QB
The QB carousel is going to have some big losers. There are more teams in need of a quarterback than there are quality quarterbacks to go around. Can Tom Brady work his charm to land someone? Brady’s influence as a limited owner of the Raiders is probably overstated; free agents don’t want to sign with Brady because he’s an NFL legend, they want to get paid. What the Raiders do will be interesting, whether it’s Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, praying a preferred quarterback falls to them with the sixth pick of the NFL Draft or some other mystery solution.
Chiefs have some big free agents
It’s hard to keep a dynasty going. Just because the Chiefs lost a Super Bowl doesn’t mean the dynasty is done, but they do seem a bit more vulnerable after the Eagles handled them. And now there are some serious free-agent questions. Guard Trey Smith will be among the highest paid free agents, and Kansas City already has offensive line questions. Receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown can test the market. Linebacker Nick Bolton and safety Justin Reid are two key members of the defense whose contracts are up. It’s probably inevitable that the Chiefs lose some good players. Every AFC contender is hoping so.
