A dozen teams enter the College Football Playoff with the same goal — win the national title.
Yet for some programs and individuals, there is more on the line here — a narrative-changing opportunity in what could be called the Redemption Playoff.
Put this way: No matter what happens, Georgia will still be a powerhouse under a respected coach (Kirby Smart). Or, consider, for example, that Tennessee and Arizona State will be fast-rising programs with tons of potential in the seasons to come no matter the results.
For others though, fortunes and reputations can swing, dramatically.
Here the five biggest, in descending order.
5. Notre Dame: Is this a new era for the Fighting Irish?
For at least three decades the Fighting Irish have lived in a world where good but not great has served as a ceiling for the program. They could put together strong regular seasons, but whether it was under Brian Kelly or to a lesser extent Charlie Weis, there were limits.
The BCS and four-team playoff were particularly jarring — they went 0-3 by a non-competitive combined score of 103-31. Kelly bounced to LSU, essentially acknowledging that he couldn’t win a national title in South Bend.
What now though? Marcus Freeman’s team has been rolling outside of a no-show against Northern Illinois back in September. At 11-1, is this a new era of Notre Dame, where the transfer portal and NIL allows the program to fill the talent gaps that can finally make them competitive with the sports elite?
Or will it be the same old story, just in a new system.
Indiana visits on Friday, Dec. 20, offering the program a chance to show off its campus and environment. That stuff has never been in question though. A win — and then a real challenge against No. 2 Georgia in the quarterfinals — is what everyone wants to see. Notre Dame is talented no doubt, but national respect still needs to be seized.
4. Quinn Ewers: How good is he really?
The Texas quarterback was expected to lead the Longhorns to the playoff (again) and perhaps win a national title before skipping off to the NFL as a first-round draft pick. He would then leave the job in Austin to Arch Manning.
The first part has been accomplished — Texas is the five seed despite not defeating a single currently ranked team. The NFL part is more complicated.
This year his completion percentage is down (from 69.0 to 66.7) while his interceptions are up (from 6 to 9). The mock drafts have him anywhere from the end of the first to a third-day selection. Considering the NFL’s forever need for QBs, the former is more likely.
His two-pick performance in a SEC title game loss to Georgia didn’t help though. His play can best be described as uneven and there are plenty of Texas fans who pine for Manning to get his chance.
So just how good is Ewers? Well, the postseason offers a chance to soar up draft boards and become a Longhorn legend. Or it could cause him to tumble back to college — staying in Austin or hitting the transfer portal. No other individual player has as much on the line, even if winning as a team remains the most important thing.
3. James Franklin: Can he win a big game?
The numbers are almost part of the Penn State coach’s name at this point — 3-19 against top-10 opponents and 4-17 against Big Ten heavyweights Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions win often under Franklin, including this year’s 11-2 mark, but not in the big games.
Every playoff game is a big game, though, and as the sixth seed, Penn State received a dream of a break in the bracket. It will host 11th-seeded SMU on Dec. 21, with the winner to meet third-seeded (but ninth-ranked) Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.
Obviously the Mustangs and Broncos are capable of beating Penn State, but this is not a murderers’ row that Franklin is facing. If he can get past those two to charge into the semifinals, the program will receive a jolt. Fall short, though, and the howls about how high he can lift the Nittany Lions will only grow louder.
The College Football Playoff was built for programs such as Penn State, who otherwise struggle to beat the best of the best and reach the four-team field. This is Franklin’s opportunity to change a lot of perceptions about his coaching ability.
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2. Dabo Swinney: Can Dabo win Dabo’s way?
In an era where the transfer portal is an integral, if not prevalent, way for programs to stock their rosters, just four schools didn’t add a single transfer last offseason: Army, Navy, Air Force and … Clemson.
Swinney has won two national titles at Clemson and built his program into a national powerhouse, both of which seemed unlikely before he took over as the interim coach in 2008. He’s always done it his way and that hasn’t changed even as results have diminished — no playoff appearances since 2020.
The Tigers took a winding path to the playoff — three losses before winning the ACC’s automatic bid on a 56-yard, time-expiring field goal. They are in, though, and Swinney has the chance to silence, or at least lower the volume, on the many critics of his old-school system who have labeled him as a stubborn, behind-the-times coach.
Upset Texas in the first round to start a playoff run and there remains a proof of concept for how he does things — i.e. remaining loyal to high school recruits through the developmental process. It’s an idealistic system and it would be nice if it worked.
Here’s Dabo’s chance to prove it still can.
1. Ryan Day: Is he the right coach for Ohio State?
No one enters the playoff with more pressure than the Ohio State coach. He’s 66-10 leading the Buckeyes, but 0-4 over the last four seasons against Michigan. It’s left him under significant pressure from an impatient fan base. Now he enters the playoff as the eight seed but with arguably the most talented roster in the field courtesy of a reported $20 million in NIL payouts.
The good news? Michigan isn’t in the playoff. The bad news? The road to the championship that would likely cool the speculation around him is arduous: a visit by Tennessee with the winner facing No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl.
Day has a history of beating the teams he is supposed to beat, but falling to the best in the sport — and freezing up against the Wolverines. The crowd inside Ohio Stadium for the Vols game will be intense, especially if Ohio State starts slow.
Two years ago, a similar scenario played out and Ohio State played a great game after a Michigan loss, nearly defeating eventual national champion Georgia in the semifinals. Can that same level be found again? It might have to or Day won’t just be facing calls for his job, but dealing with a level of discomfort that might make continuing impossible.
This isn’t just a season on the line for Day, it’s a career arc. He might not need to win it all, but it sure wouldn’t hurt.
