Texans' Super Bowl odds, C.J. Stroud's MVP odds get shorter after Stefon Diggs trade


The Texans made a huge move to trade for receiver Stefon Diggs. (AP Photo/Brett Carlsen)
The Texans made a huge move to trade for receiver Stefon Diggs. (AP Photo/Brett Carlsen)

The Houston Texans have come a long way in a year.

At this time last year, they didn’t yet have quarterback C.J. Stroud and were considered one of the worst teams in the NFL. A lot has changed since then.

The Texans had a fantastic season with rapid growth, and then made one of the biggest moves of the offseason on Wednesday by trading for receiver Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills.

By the time the Texans celebrate the one-year anniversary of drafting Stroud, they’ll have among the best odds at BetMGM to win next season’s Super Bowl. Those odds saw a significant shift with the Diggs news. So did the odds of Stroud winning MVP.

Texans odds shift after Stefon Diggs trade

Before the bombshell Diggs news on Tuesday, the Texans were 25-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Those odds were cut nearly in half by adding one of the NFL’s top receivers. They’re +1500, or 15-to-1, now.

That puts the Texans among the top teams in the Super Bowl odds. They’re now seventh on BetMGM’s board. That’s lofty for a team that was expected to contend for the worst record in the NFL last season, before Stroud had a historic rookie season and led the team to a division title.

Stroud’s MVP odds shifted too, from +1100 to +1000.

Only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have shorter odds. Stroud has shorter odds than Lamar Jackson, who won his second MVP last season.

On the other side, the Bills’ odds got worse when the Diggs trade was reported. They went from +1200 to win the Super Bowl to +1400 after news of the trade. And Josh Allen’s MVP odds moved from +800 to +900.

It’s rare for a non-quarterback transaction to have that big of an impact on the odds, but it’s a reflection of the momentum the Texans had going into the offseason and the moves they’ve made.

Houston had a strong 2023 season

Houston finished last season by winning the AFC South, then winning a playoff game. Stroud won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and Will Anderson Jr. won Defensive Rookie of the Year. Because the Texans came along so fast with a cheap rookie quarterback, they had plenty of cap space to make moves this offseason.

The Texans added defensive linemen Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry, linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, traded for running back Joe Mixon and added other depth pieces. Adding Diggs, a four-time Pro Bowler, makes their offense look scary. Houston already had Nico Collins and Tank Dell at receiver before adding Diggs.

There’s some risk in adding Diggs. He’s 30 years old, and over Buffalo’s final 13 games last season he had 68 catches, 636 yards, three touchdowns, 9.4 yards per catch and zero 100-yard games. There could have been valid reasons for the slump, and the Texans are likely to get a highly motivated Diggs.

Whatever was behind Diggs looking very average for more than a half of a season, oddsmakers weren’t fazed. If the odds are any indication, the Texans took a huge step toward being Super Bowl contenders on Wednesday.



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