UFC Des Moines predictions, odds, full card preview: Is Cory Sandhagen still a title threat?


It’s been 25 years since the UFC held an event in Iowa, but for UFC Des Moines, the promotion decided to deliver the goods.

We call it like we see it around here. Top to bottom, Saturday’s fisticuff festival is pretty damn good — especially for today’s Fight Night standards. I’m fully here for it. If you’re a hardcore fan, you should be hunkered down and ready to rumble from fight No. 1 all the way to the high-octane bantamweight main event, which features top contenders Cory Sandhagen and former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo looking to rebound from losses and keep their names near title contention.

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The main card further highlights the globally exceptional 135-pound talent pool with two other compelling matchups, but it’s the co-main event that will tell us plenty at 185 pounds. Former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder has blazed to a quick 2-0 record in the Octagon, and now plans to hand uber-prospect Bo Nickal his first loss.

That’s all without mentioning the UFC returns of former bantamweight champion Miesha Tate and fan-favorite slugger Jeremy Stephens. In other words, UFC Des Moines is a ripper.

We haven’t done this yet with MMA here at Uncrowned, but as the man on the weekly WWE reviews, I’m making an executive decision: 👑 I give UFC Des Moines’ lineup a Crown grade of: B+. 👑

Let’s look deeper into who comes out with their hands raised and why.

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Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

MACAU, CHINA - NOVEMBER 23:  Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil stands in his corner before his bantamweight fight against Petr Yan of Russia during the UFC Fight Night event at Galaxy Arena on November 23, 2024 in Macau, China. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

MACAU, CHINA – NOVEMBER 23: Deiveson Figueiredo of Brazil stands in his corner before his bantamweight fight against Petr Yan of Russia during the UFC Fight Night event at Galaxy Arena on November 23, 2024 in Macau, China. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)

135 pounds: Cory Sandhagen (-550) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+400)

It still feels weird that Figueiredo is at bantamweight despite gearing up for his fifth fight here against Sandhagen.

The prestige was almost instantly knocked off the former two-time flyweight champion by entering the perpetually stacked bantamweight mix. Regardless, he’s been a major player, handling everyone in his way outside his fellow former champ Petr Yan the last time out. I admittedly had better faith in Figueiredo than I should have going into that fight, but it was a rough, rough matchup.

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Figueiredo, 37, has relied much more on his grappling as a bantamweight than at 125 pounds. After a gorgeous inside trip takedown early against Yan, Figueiredo’s success vanished, as he was outpaced with volume and superior boxing. Although Figueiredo never got too comfortable at any point, he upped his aggression as time passed, showing flashes of that former champion in full effect, knocking down Yan in the fourth. The guy is always dangerous.

We have one of the division’s most versatile strikers in Sandhagen. While that’s still rightfully viewed as Sandhagen’s area of expertise, his wrestling is wildly underappreciated, and the Umar Nurmagomedov loss helped that stigma remain. That isn’t too fair, considering how well “The Sandman” did defensively. A loss is a loss though, and Sandhagen might not have many more climbs back toward a title in him with a loss at UFC Des Moines.

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Sandhagen will utilize his monstrous length advantage over the shorter Figueiredo, and we’ll surely see some fun scrambles throughout the 25-minute affair, with the Brazilian seeking control. Ultimately, I expect this to look relatively similar to the Yan fight for Figueiredo. Unless he starts faster, this could be a long night of slicing and dicing from Sandhagen, who can have a field day like he did against Song Yadong three years ago.

Pick: Sandhagen

185 pounds: Reinier de Ridder (+260) vs. Bo Nickal (-325)

As many commenters and responders say daily in response to an overly thoughtful social media post, “It ain’t that deep, bro.”

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I would love to get down and dirty, diving into the nitty gritty of this matchup and why “RDR” is the man. The promotion has still somewhat disrespected him with his booking thus far, but this fight with Nickal is just going to be a repeat of the latter’s last win over Paul Craig. Don’t get me wrong, de Ridder is a superior fighter to Craig, and arguably the best grappler at 185 pounds. On the feet, however, he’s just not that menacing, and he knows it. What did Nickal do against Craig? He avoided grappling at all costs and didn’t shoot a single takedown despite possessing truly phenomenal wrestling abilities.

Nickal is a smart dude, and even though most believe he could have handled Craig on the ground, he didn’t bother — because he didn’t need to. So, do you want me to believe he’ll try his hand against an even more dangerous submission artist? Yeah, I think I’ll go buy that land over there.

Pick: Nickal

170 pounds: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-135) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+110)

Did you know Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez are both 38? The latter is news to me. “D-Rod” has somehow quietly drifted into weathered veteran status. On the other side, Ponzibbio is in that same boat, but still carrying absolute heaters for hands, and Carlston Harris felt that in brutal fashion this past January.

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Rodriguez has been known for his solid boxing skills at welterweight throughout his run. Since his win over Kevin Lee in 2021, it could be argued that Rodriguez is 0-5 in his last five. Something just isn’t clicking quite the same, and it feels like a possible preparation issue, as he’s been overwhelmed by more balanced fighters, forcing him to fade down the stretch. Or maybe it’s just that age thing I mentioned off the top.

Either way, “Ponzi” isn’t the perfect definition of a kill-or-be-killed fighter, but the guy doesn’t go away and is always on the hunt. His vicious leg kicks are a nightmare for a guy with a heavy lead leg and boxing-based offense.

Pick: Ponzinibbio

DENVER, COLORADO - JULY 13:  Montel Jackson reacts after his KO victory over Da'Mon Blackshear in a bantamweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Ball Arena on July 13, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.  (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

DENVER, COLORADO – JULY 13: Montel Jackson reacts after his KO victory over Da’Mon Blackshear in a bantamweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at Ball Arena on July 13, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

(Josh Hedges via Getty Images)

135 pounds: Montel Jackson (-200) vs. Daniel Marcos (+165)

Montel Jackson has quietly become one of the best fighters at 135 pounds, stacking a streak of five wins ahead of his Daniel Marcos clash.

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The undefeated 17-0 (1 NC) Marcos has been stellar, but is starting to see the tests the UFC level delivers beyond the Peruvian regional scene. Marcos picked up a big split decision win over the battle-tested Adrian Yanez last December, proving he can hang with these talented low-key monsters at bantamweight.

Jackson, 33, is just so physically imposing for the weight class at 5-foot-10 with a 75.5-inch reach. He has clubbing sledgehammers for fists and is sure to make contact on the somewhat reckless Marcos. Capable of taking opponents down, his large frame arguably makes him even more challenging to take down.

If Jackson can return to an active rate of fighting more than once a year, he’ll be challenging some top 15 opposition sooner rather than later.

Pick: Jackson

135 pounds: Cameron Smotherman (+110) vs. Serhiy Sidey (-135)

I’m still not particularly high on Cameron Smotherman or Serhiy Sidey yet. This has the feel of one of those Dana White’s Contender Series showcase bouts, pitting two winners against each other in the Octagon. Though Smotherman failed in his attempt to earn a contract in 2023, he’s been banging on all cylinders since with four straight wins, including his impressive short-notice debut, a unanimous decision over Jake Hadley.

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Smotherman, 27, has been more consistent with his performances recently and appears to be finding a rhythm with his style. Sidey is arguably the more dangerous of the two, packing some solid power to worry about. His split decision win over Garrett Armfield last November just gave me too much pause to favor him in this matchup.

Pick: Smotherman

155 pounds: Jeremy Stephens (+425) vs. Mason Jones (-600)

Alright, I’m much more of a “head over heart” guy these days, but with Jeremy Stephens’ 2025 UFC return, I’m going heart. “Lil Heathen” has already been making magic, so why jump off this momentum train now?

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Stephens, 38, seems legitimately more confident in himself than ever before, and it’s paid off in ridiculous ways, as he became a bare-knuckle boxing success post-PFL. The Iowan has always carried violent power and intentions, and the storm is perfect in this home game.

Mason Jones should win this fight, whether by outwrestling or grinding out Stephens before a thumping finish. But hey, I won’t be the one to kill this vibe, OK?

Pick: Stephens

AUSTIN, TX - DECEMBER 02: Miesha Tate is declared the winner during UFC Fight Night on December 2, 2023, at The Moody Center in Austin, TX. (Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

AUSTIN, TX – DECEMBER 02: Miesha Tate is declared the winner during UFC Fight Night on December 2, 2023, at The Moody Center in Austin, TX. (Photo by John Rivera/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Preliminary notes

Miesha Tate fell off the face of the planet after her dominant return to bantamweight against Julia Avila in December 2023. I’m still not sure what was up with that, but I’ve refused to miss a “Cupcake” contest since she persuaded me into believing the women in MMA were legit and worth the light of day with her incredibly epic Julie Kedzie comeback win in 2012. If you haven’t seen that fight, go and do yourself a favor right now. Thanks to her legendary status and the state of the bantamweight division, a win over Yana Santos could put the 38-year-old Tate closer to a title shot than anyone would have ever expected in 2025.

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Former top strawweight contender Marina Rodriguez is also back in action after a spell of back-to-back split decision losses that easily could have gone her way. The oddsmakers are showing the Brazilian some absolute disrespect against Gillian Robertson, but it’s understandable simply from the optics and Rodriguez’s historically suspect takedown defense. She’ll need a win to save her job, preventing a slide to 1-5 in her last six.

There’s something like in every fight at UFC Des Moines. (Except for the heavyweights.)

Quick picks:

Miesha Tate (-145) def. Yana Santos (+120)

Ryan Loder (+310) def. Azamat Bekoev (-400)

Marina Rodriguez (+260) def. Gillian Robertson (-325)

Gaston Bolanos (-140) def. Quang Le (+115)

Thomas Peterson (-285) def. Don’Tale Mayes (+230)

Juliana Miller (+185) def. Ivana Petrovic (-225)



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